The Jigsaw Puzzle that is Syria

It is always difficult to digest the reality of a violent foreign conflict. This is especially true when those in conflict come from a culture not particularly familiar in language, sectarian customs or religion. We may relate to images of a suffering people, but while these images put a human face on the conflict, they often also further solidify the perception that those in conflict are “there” and we are “here.”

The current crisis in Syria demonstrates this very clearly. For over three years the American people have heard occasional news reports about what has been termed a “civil war” in Syria. These reports have increased since the U.S. and allies have undertaken the offensive against ISIS, but the scope and context of the conflict remain ill-defined and unclear.

Foreign conflicts, including the Syrian crisis, can be compared to a jigsaw puzzle.

The Truth of Assad’s Lie

Note: Parts of this post contain graphic descriptions of physical abuse.

Since March 2011, when protesters took to the streets of Syria demanding reform, demanding freedom from the tyrannical reign of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, the world has watched a nation slide into the throes of a civil war where an ideological kaleidoscope of oppositional factions battle a regime desperate to cling to its illegitimate power, willing to use any form of  tyranny and disinformation to do so.

Add to this the fact that the regime has encouraged the birth and growth of radical jihadist groups that are ostensibly focused on the regime’s demise, but that are in actuality serving the regime’s interests by confusing the battlefield and paralyzing already war-timid western nations who might otherwise support Syrian reform, add these together and one is left with what appears to be a Middle East morass that has a thousand paths in and no clear path out.

This of course serves the interests of President Assad very well as is evidenced by his ability for the past three years to kill over 250,000 civilians (15,000 of which are children under 15 years of age), displace over 10 million and leave much of the country in rubble and still remain in power facing only the occasional rhetorical western threats or non-credible “red line” ultimatums.

The Video Turns out to be Fake but Not the Determination of the Syrian People

On Tuesday of this week I published a post entitled “A Hero Outside Damascus.” It set up a 1:06 minute video of what appeared to be a young Syrian boy risking his life in a tremendous show of heroism in order to rescue a young girl from what was assumed to be Syrian regime snipers. The video offered a glimpse of what I told one person was the true Syrian spirit of determination.

We learned tonight that the video was a farce. It was filmed in Malta by a Norwegian film crew and posted to their YouTube page with the intention of deceiving viewers. This viewer clearly was deceived. (Read BBC Trending article here)

A Hero Outside Damascus

Every war has its victims and every conflict its horrors. The civil war raging in Syria is not an exception. The statistics stagger – 200,000 + civilians killed by the Assad regime with more than 10,000 of these being children. Nine million Syrians have been displaced inside and outside Syria leaving entire towns destroyed. 

Images of death and carnage - of hospitals lying in rubble and of refugee camps torn and tattered by Assad's bombs sweep through social media with such unrelenting force that many viewers in the west have become numb and even repulsed. Words cannot fully define the helplessness and hopelessness felt by those men and women who so desperately long not simply for an end to the fighting, but also for the freedom from tyranny for which they fight. 

Every war also has its heroes, and the war in Syria is again not an exception.

As we celebrate Veterans Day here in the United States, we pay tribute to those who have taken the oath to defend and protect. We give our utmost respect to the men and women who have gone into harm’s way, so that those of us who do not serve may remain safe at home. This is an exceptional thing and every American should celebrate and be grateful.

It is also fitting I believe to take this day to share one story of a hero who is not American, who did not take an oath or wear a uniform, who simply acted without regard to his own life to save another. The following one minute video is not graphic but it is violent. Watch to the end and you will be inspired. His is a story that the world needs to know. 

(The snipers are serving at the orders of Syrian President Bashar al Assad outside Damascus, It should also be noted that the voices heard are not those of the snipers but of people secretly filming using a telephoto lens to document Assad’s crimes against humanity.)

A hero outside Damascus

Finally, I am not Muslim, but this young man's actions reminded me of the verse from the Koran, “And whoever saves one life - it is as if he had saved mankind entirely.” Surat 5:32 It should be everyone’s hope and prayer that the world saves his life and the lives of all those left standing in that war-torn nation by demanding an end to Assad’s inhuman assault on the innocent.

We are losing our fight against ISIS

We are losing our fight against ISIS. Regardless of a successful strike here, or a temporarily retreating foe there, we are losing ground each day in the hearts and minds of the Syrian people.

We are losing, not because we cannot win and not because the fight is not worth fighting. The truth is, we can win and for the sake of our long term national security and economic stability, as well as, our ability to project the same around the globe victory is worth the fight. We are losing because the promises and statements of President Obama are disconnected from his administration’s actual policies and actions.

Clearly the challenges and dangers of seeking to destroy our stated enemy, the Islamic State, are great and real. Add to this that the battlefield has been shaped by a three-year civil war - a civil war in which multiple opposition factions from a kaleidoscope of ideological leanings battle a desperate and malevolent dictator who continues to survive by way of funds and weapons from Russia and fighters from Iran, the complexity of prudent and effective action becomes almost confounding – almost.

Question of the Day

Q:        What do the following counties have in common?  (See answer at the bottom.)

	Hungary	9,933,173
	Sweden	9,631,261
	Azerbaijan	9,514,887
	Serbia	9,468,378
	United Arab Emirates	9,445,624
	Belarus	9,307,609
	Austria	8,526,429
	Tajikistan	8,408,947
	Honduras	8,260,749
	Switzerland	8,157,896
	Israel	7,822,107
	Jordan	7,504,812

Time is Not on Our Side in Syria

On October 16th, the Wall Street Journal published an opinion piece written by United States Senators John McCain and Lindsey Graham entitled, “To Defeat Islamic State, Remove Assad.” The by-line reads, “Syrians are already asking why we’re bombing ISIS but not stopping Assad’s attacks on them.” (See full article here.) 

This is the most critical question relating to the situation in Syria today - Will the United States, at a minimum, allow ally countries to enforce a No Fly Zone over the regions of Syria enduring the Assad regime’s daily bombings of civilians? After watching the slow death of a nation through the killing of 220,000 civilians with 12,000 of these being children, the displacement externally and internally of an estimated 12 million refugees and the destruction of entire cities by regime forces, the Syrian people have a right to know our answer to this question before they pledge to be our “boots on the ground” fighting ISIS.

How to Lose Friends and Influence No One – Obama’s Failing Syrian Doctrine

When President Obama spoke to the American people on September 10, 2014, the people of Syria listened.   They heard a message they had prayed would be spoken for three years.  They heard the leader of the free world tell his nation that the time to act against terror in Iraq and also in Syria had come and that America, alongside Arab allies, was ready.

The message was not precisely what the people of Syria had hoped it would be, but it was enough to restore hope. To moderate Syrians, the regime of Bashar al Assad is the primary enemy and ISIS the secondary.  They understood, however, that the United States was focused on ISIS and they accepted this political reality. They also understood that we needed them fighting on the ground, and they agreed.

The War of Words That We Must Win

The U.S. and coalition’s assault on ISIS in Iraq and Syria will not be successful without the proverbial “boots on the ground” – but the fighters wearing those boots do not have to be, and cannot be, American troops.

In Iraq, we wage an aerial war against ISIS with the assistance of both the legitimate government of Iraq and the Kurdish army.  They are our boots and will be effective.

In Syria, however, we do not have a legitimate government to aid us. Syrian president Assad is a ruthless dictator who has killed over 190,000 of his own citizens in a war he is waging against his people. We are therefore relying on the Free Syrian Army – a force made up of civilians who organized not to fight ISIS but to fight for the end of the Assad regime.

On a Personal Note… Turkey, Muslims and my Friends

A gentleman whom I greatly respect recently asked me what percentage of Turkey I thought was Muslim. I told him I suspected it to be around 98%.  “Exactly,” he exclaimed adding, “ It’s a very dangerous place.”   

(The actual percentage of Turks claiming the Muslim religion is 99.8%.)

I write this post to simply express my opinion that the “danger” of a people, any people, cannot be determined by the faith they proclaim and that it is short-sighted for us to fall victim to the temptation of cultural generalization - especially when we are fighting a real enemy.

The Price of Isolationism – Pay for Weapons Now or Pay at the Pump Later

On Wednesday, the United States House of Representatives is expected to vote on whether or not to allow the Obama administration to arm and train the Free Syrian Army (FSA) which is fighting both the Islamic State (ISIS) and the tyrannical regime of Syria’s president Bashar al-Assad.
 

For more than two years President Obama hesitated in developing a strong policy to support the moderate fighters of Syria. Throughout that time only a handful of members of the House and Senate called for decisive action. Some members from both parties called repeatedly for action but their voices were ignored.

This inaction was due in part to the complexity of the situation on the ground in Syria and a fear of aiding radicalized elements of the revolution. It was primarily due though to an unwillingness to risk the ire of an American people weary of wars and rumors of wars.

ISIS, Syria and Bashar al-Assad – Who, What, When, Where and Why

As the president prepares to address the nation this evening regarding ISIS/Syria, it is worth taking a moment to reflect on how the Syrian crisis and later the ISIS crisis came to be.

In the spring of 2011, moderate students, small business owners, academics and others took the streets of Damascus, Syrian to protest the tyrannical reign of Syrian president Bashar al-Assad. This was part of the larger regional democratic push coined as the “Arab Spring.”  

These protestors were not jihadists. They were not radicals. They were fathers and mothers, husbands and wives who simply longed for the same values we cherish – freedom of assembly, free and fair elections and a fair and open judicial process among them. They also dared to seek rights we do not ever think to cherish such as the right to not be tortured by the intelligence service of your own government for verbalizing any criticism of the president or his policies.

The Challenge For Obama in His Wednesday Speech

President Obama stood before the people of Estonia on September 3^rd and gave a speech that resonated with all who cherish democracy and demand a world where the ideals of democracy are free to flourish.

He spoke with strength and deliberation. He spoke with passion of the past heroism of the Estonian people who stood proud in the face of tyranny on the heels of tyranny. He spoke resolutely of the solidarity of NATO, and specifically of the United States, with the Baltic States.  He spoke of a future that was secure and united, dedicated and determined. 

In short, the President of the United States spoke words befitting his title.

On Wednesday, September 10^th, the president will address the American people and present his strategy for defeating the self-proclaimed jihadist threat of ISIS/ISIL/IS. 

He proved in Estonia that he can eloquently weave the rational of history with the urgency of the moment into the fragile fabric of a clear and present danger.  On the eve of this speech, President Obama must ask himself two questions. First, how does he cut from that fabric a flag that rallies a nation weary of rallies?   Secondly, how does he persuade a nation that is justifiably distrustful of his resolve to carry that flag to victory?

It is my hope that he succeeds in both. I am not confident, but hopeful. 

Obama's Words Show Vision - Will Actions Follow The Same Path?

For all the criticisms of President Obama (mine included) regarding his lack of a decisive foreign policy, one cannot listen to or read his remarks to the people of Estonia without being reminiscent of President Ronald Reagan's 1987 speech to the people of Germany.  Whether his actions will follow the path of his rhetoric is still to be seen; however, his words showed that he has a vision focused squarely on the side of a strong United States that stands proudly for the values of democracy and civil society and is willing and able to use her strength to protect those values when threatened.

From his remarks:

"During the long Soviet occupation, the great Estonian poet, Marie Under, wrote a poem in which she cried to the world: “Who’ll come to help?  Right here, at present, now!”  And I say to the people of Estonia and the people of the Baltics, today we are bound by our treaty Alliance.  We have a solemn duty to each other.  Article 5 is crystal clear:  An attack on one is an attack on all.  So if, in such a moment, you ever ask again, “who will come to help,” you’ll know the answer -- the NATO Alliance, including the Armed Forces of the United States of America, “right here, [at] present, now!”  We’ll be here for Estonia.  We will be here for Latvia.  We will be here for Lithuania.  You lost your independence once before.  With NATO, you will never lose it again."

"Today, your example (Estonia) -- your victory -- gives hope to people all over the world.  Yes, there will be setbacks and there will be frustrations, and there will be moments of doubt and moments of despair.  The currents of history ebb and flow, but over time they flow toward freedom -- more people, in every corner of the Earth, standing up and reaching to claim those rights that are universal.  And that’s why, in the end, our ideals are stronger.  And that’s why, in the end, our ideals will win."

http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/09/03/remarks-president-obama-people-estonia

Blind GOP Isolationism Does Not Escape Blame

For anyone who follows me on Twitter (Dean_Rice) you know I've been very critical of President Obama's indecisive and in my opinion dreadful foreign policy ie Syria, Assad, ISIS, Ukraine and Russia.

The truth is though that the blind isolationist mindset of many Republicans in Congress is as much to blame for the current global security meltdown as is Obama. The "not our business" mentality has a very real cost.

We can't be the worlds policeman, that is true. However, hiding behind this slogan while our national security erodes just to get a few more votes is at best naive and at worst cynically calculating. 

Below is a link to a podcast of a recent book discussion I led on George Friedman's The Next One Hundred Years. It is a fascinating and extremely well written book.  

The next 100 years: a forecast for the 21st century by George Friedman. - See more at: http://www.knoxlib.org/about/news-and-publications/podcasts/books-sandwiched-podcast/intriguing-possibilities-geopolitics#sthash.fYTUGP64.dpuf

http://www.knoxlib.org/about/news-and-publications/podcasts/books-sandwiched-podcast/intriguing-possibilities-geopolitics