Time is Not on Our Side in Syria

On October 16th, the Wall Street Journal published an opinion piece written by United States Senators John McCain and Lindsey Graham entitled, “To Defeat Islamic State, Remove Assad.” The by-line reads, “Syrians are already asking why we’re bombing ISIS but not stopping Assad’s attacks on them.” (See full article here.) 

This is the most critical question relating to the situation in Syria today - Will the United States, at a minimum, allow ally countries to enforce a No Fly Zone over the regions of Syria enduring the Assad regime’s daily bombings of civilians? After watching the slow death of a nation through the killing of 220,000 civilians with 12,000 of these being children, the displacement externally and internally of an estimated 12 million refugees and the destruction of entire cities by regime forces, the Syrian people have a right to know our answer to this question before they pledge to be our “boots on the ground” fighting ISIS.

If the Administration fails to respond in a manner that gives the people of Syria hope that there will be an end to their three-year humanitarian nightmare caused by Assad, we will lose our fight. We will lose our fight against ISIS and will not achieve the resulting goal of curbing radical Islamic terror threats against the U.S. 

I say this not as someone writing from the sterile policy environment of the U.S., but as someone who is in near-daily contact with moderate pro-Western Syrians. These men and women are desperately passing along the same messages being heard by Senators McCain and Graham – and hopefully the White House.

The key points they are pleading the Administration to consider are:

• Assad has increased the frequency of attacks on civilian population centers since the U.S. led air campaign began. He is targeting areas in and around Aleppo, Homs and the Idlib region and coordinating these in such a way as to appear to be working with the U.S.
• The Assad regime is not attacking ISIS, only other opposition enclaves and purely civilian areas.
• Moderate opposition forces will not leave their homes and families to train with the U.S. to fight ISIS if their homes are being besieged by Assad’s barrel bombs with no allied response.
• The resulting appearance of indirect and unintentional support by the U.S. of Assad’s campaign against those who oppose him is drastically diminishing any desire moderate Syrians have to be our allies. It is in fact forcing them to see their only hope resting in the hands of radicals.

“Stars and Stripes” online news outlet reported on October 18 that, “Ten weeks into its war against Islamic State extremists, the Pentagon is settling in for the long haul, short on big early successes but still banking on enlisting Syrians and Iraqis to fight the ground war so that U.S. troops won't have to.”

If Assad is allowed to continue his war against the Syrian people with impunity, our military campaign, now officially called "Operation Inherent Resolve” will fail. Regardless of success in Kobane or any other single air battle against ISIS, true success rest in the hands of the Syrian people. Those hands, however, are filled increasingly with rubble and body bags. 

To ensure our national self-interests are achieved, i.e. the defeat of ISIS and its ability to project terror, coalition allies must recognize the self-interests of the Syrian people and implement a No Fly Zone around the areas being bombarded by Assad, provide safe-passage corridors for the delivery of medical supplies and food to these civilian areas. The president must also make clear that it is his commitment to them that the future Syria will be shaped by Syrians and will not be found under the boot of a tyrant.

Time is not on our side. Each day that Assad is allowed to shell Waers, barrel bomb Aleppo, fire missiles into the neighborhoods of Homs and fire artillery relentlessly into Douma just outside Damascus is a new day for the Syrian people to ask themselves the very understandable question, “If the U.S. does not have our backs, why should we have theirs?” 

Unfortunately for all parties except President Assad and ISIS, the answer to that question is increasingly unclear.