Saturday, September 12, 2015

Syria and Russia Today

The media is flush with reports of Russian involvement in Syria in support of President Assad. This is not new and comments from the U.S. administration saying it is now "concerned," and that the escalation we see today could not have been predicted are obnoxious. We have known since 2012 that Russia is directly supporting Assad through logistics and intelligence, as well as, arms and supplies.

Throughout this time, and continuing today, with Russia's support, Assad is targeting civilians NOT ISIS. He continues to use Chlorine gas and barrel bombs in direct violation of UN Security Council resolutions. He continues to target hospitals and assassinate doctors and nurses in direct violation of Geneva protocols.

Simply put, Assad has, and continues to, openly and flagrantly commit war crimes against his people. The UN knows this. The West knows this. Iran knows this. Russia knows this.

Any expression of shocked surprise from officials is disingenuous at best.

Why would Assad do this? Since 2011 he has been been in a war he declared on the Syrian people who want change. They began in March 2011 asking simply for multi-party elections. Assad responded with bullets and the civil war began. Later radicalized Islamists joined the fight against him and gave him exactly what he needed - A common enemy with the West.

He quickly claimed that he was fighting "terrorism" and ISIS just like the U.S. and the West. He successfully marginalized all legitimate groups who sought political change in Syria. All became terrorist - all who opposed his reign were labeled enemies and targets. Since then, he has killed 250,000 civilians, displaced 11 million (half of the entire country) and destroyed city after city. All this has been made possible because of Russia's direct support.

The fact that Russia is now ramping up its presence is due to Assad's recent battlefield setbacks. He has lost the key Idlib province and is now desperately trying to consolidate his strength from the coastal city of Latakia south to Damascus.

Russia, like Mighty Mouse, is here (there) to save his day.

What is the solution? Call Putin's bluff and tell Assad enough.

A first step would be to let Turkey say to Assad that the next time a helicopter flies over a civilian neighborhood or hospital and releases a barrel bomb killing children, the airfield it flew from will no longer exist. Period.

At the same time, Obama should quietly tell Putin that if he intervenes in any effort to stop Assad from committing war crimes against children we will respond first by calling the leaders of Ukraine and Sweden and saying,"Welcome to NATO!"

Putin can afford to be the bully because we let him. He needs to be the bully because his economy is in shambles and he needs the slight of hand of foreign aggression to distract the Russian public from rising prices and dropping values. Syria, to Putin, is simply the next Ukraine - the next place Putin can both flex his muscle and get distracted applause at home AND prod and prob the resolve of the West.

Assad on the other hand is a desperate man who knows if he falls he will at best be tried by a war crimes tribunal and executed. There is no end game for him except not to be killed.

Every day that goes by however, more women and children are killed, more desperate people get into rubber rafts, more young men are radicalized to hate the west and a country with 2,000 years of civilizations slips further into hell.

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